Hezbollah and Israel escalate attacks, each blaming the other for ceasefire violations. Ceasefire by June 30, 2026 at 100% ...

Both the June 30 and April 30 markets for the GPT-5.5 release trade at 100% YES. Volume is substantial, with face values of ...

The Guardian reports no progress in US-Iran negotiations. The Israel-Iran permanent peace deal market for April 30 has ...

UK plans to reopen the Strait of Hormuz with ships and drones for security. Warships transiting by April 30 at 1.2% YES.

Iran's FM returns to Islamabad for talks amid US envoy trip cancellation. Ceasefire broken by April 21, 2026 at 100% YES.

Israel deployed Iron Dome to the UAE amid rising Iranian strikes. Gulf state military action against Iran by April 30 at 3.4% ...

Senator Tillis endorsed Kevin Warsh for Fed Chair after the DOJ ended its investigation into Powell. Warsh's confirmation by ...

Karex warns of 30% price hikes due to Iran war supply chain issues. Crude oil all-time high by April 30 at 1% YES.

Bitcoin is trading roughly 30% below its $126,272 all-time high from October 2025, but the Polymarket contract for BTC ...

Wendy Sherman criticized the US-Iran situation as "harder, riskier." No US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30 at 14.2% YES.

US naval blockade of Iranian ports continues, impacting Strait of Hormuz traffic. Traffic normalization by June 30 at 25% YES ...

Oman's sultan met with Iran's foreign minister, signaling a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30 at 100% YES, while the ...